Spring 2023, 27th edition (2023 – 2050). Renewable cost development, potential, and expected investments in Norway, Sweden, Finland, Denmark, and Baltics until 2050.
Spring 2023, 40th edition (2023 - 2050). Scenario-based analysis with updated price prognosis for all Nordic price areas and neighboring countries.
The Nordic Power Market Outlook contains 90+ pages of:
The long-term report offers four scenarios with an updated base case scenario, using market prices for coal, natural gas, and EUAs, a high and low scenario, as well as our expectation scenario based on our view of long-term EUA prices. The analysis is available as pdf including a spreadsheet with all relevant calculations from the analysis.
We include price forecasts with an hourly resolution for the Nordic system and all Nordic area prices up to 2050, plus price projections for Germany France, the UK, Netherlands, Poland, Estonia, Russia, Latvia, and Lithuania on an annual resolution.
The Nordic Power Outlook also includes a detailed annual supply and demand balance for all price areas and estimates for SRMC and LRMCs for a large number of production technologies until 2050.
There seems to be a conviction among a great many players that electricity consumption will increase enormously in the coming years, without particularly questioning whether this will be a cost-optimal development. We share the view that consumption will increase a lot, and show that this largely follows from the continuous build-out of new renewable energy that provides sufficiently low power prices to be the main driver of consumption growth.Sigbjørn Seland
Chief Analyst at StormGeo Nena Analysis
With access to high-quality analyses of future energy prices, we can confidently advise our clients on good investment decisions for energy solutions in our building projects.Dib Abdul-Hadi
Nena Analysis is one of the few analyses we use on a weekly basis and is definitely highly important. We rate all these companies every year and pick the ones to continue with, and we've been with Nena for a long time. We're always shown very good analysis and very good insights.Nicholas Martin
Head of Sourcing Europe, Norsk Hydro
Myself, as an employee in Bane NOR, have had a two decade history as customers of Nena and that’s due to the need to have a necessary tool to make good decisions on a daily basis.Jonny Glærum
Key discussions for the Spring 2023 Nordic Power Market Outlook.
Investments in new renewable power generation have generally never looked more profitable than today, and the consequence is record-breaking investments, especially in solar power.
Onshore wind power is slowing down due to regulatory obstacles and land use conflicts, but investors are eager. Solar power and, in a few years, offshore wind power will take over as growth drivers. The potential for building new renewable production in the Nordics and the Baltics is tremendous and we model that much of the potential will be utilized.
Consumption growth in the coming years will be reduced due to high power prices, but consumption will increase significantly in the long term. The potential linked to the production of green hydrogen is large, and we model the development of emerging hydrogen production in the Nordics.
At the same time, wind and solar power production continue to increase rapidly. The power production surplus in the Nordics records high and will increase further in the coming years as new wind, solar, and nuclear power production increase faster than consumption growth. This naturally leads to expectations of falling power prices in the coming years. We discuss whether and possibly how quickly power prices fall back to the cost of building new production.
There seems to be a general expectation that power consumption will increase tremendously in the years and decades to come. We problematize this expectation and argue that consumption growth as a function of Power-to-X will largely depend on relatively low electricity prices.
A key condition in the analysis is what build-out potential it is realistic to assume for new renewable production, given that it is very land-intensive. The overall potential for the development of wind and solar power is believed to be very large and therefore the power price in the long term will largely be determined by the development cost for this potential.
We see that the price signal works and that power consumption falls in the high-price areas relative to the low-price areas. There is an increasing willingness to invest in a new production in the high-price areas and a lower interest in the low-price areas. Therefore, the area price differences will gradually become smaller in the next few years but will remain relatively high for another 3-4 years.
Power-to-X (mainly green hydrogen) has the potential to equalize the power price level between Nordics and continental Europe in the long term. Other things equal, Power-to-X will gradually lead to decreasing price differences between Nordic and Continental power prices.
We present our view on the EUA market and an alternative CO2 price better aligned with a climate-neutral Europe by 2050
The report describes in detail the various cost elements for the power system until 2050, focusing on the development of Long Run Marginal Costs in renewable power production, energy storage, hydrogen production, and hydrogen-fired power plants.
Nena Analysis builds fundamental models and methods with strong emphasis on a combination of economic theory, market models, weather impacts and marginal cost calculations.
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