Fall 2023, 28th edition (2023 – 2050). Renewable cost development, potential, and expected investments in Norway, Sweden, Finland, Denmark, and Baltics until 2050.
Fall 2023, 41st edition (2023 - 2050). Scenario-based analysis with updated price prognosis for all Nordic price areas and neighboring countries.
The Nordic Power Market Outlook contains 90+ pages of:
RELEASE DATE: OCTOBER 26, 2023
The long-term report offers four scenarios with an updated base case scenario, using market prices for coal, natural gas, and EUAs, a high and low scenario, as well as our expectation scenario based on our view of long-term EUA prices. The analysis is available as pdf including a spreadsheet with all relevant calculations from the analysis.
We include price forecasts with an hourly resolution for the Nordic system and all Nordic area prices up to 2050, plus price projections for Germany France, the UK, Netherlands, Poland, Estonia, Russia, Latvia, and Lithuania on an annual resolution.
The Nordic Power Outlook also includes a detailed annual supply and demand balance for all price areas and estimates for SRMC and LRMCs for a large number of production technologies until 2050.
The underlying drivers in renewable energy are as strong as before. Nevertheless, we see an evident decline in investments. Increased costs challenge profitability more than before, and local opposition stops or delays many wind and solar power projects.
In the long term, investors in green projects must have relatively predictable prospects for profitability and an acceptable return on capital. Therefore, the long-term price forecasts have increased quite significantly in our latest analysis.Sigbjørn Seland
Chief Analyst at StormGeo Nena Analysis
With access to high-quality analyses of future energy prices, we can confidently advise our clients on good investment decisions for energy solutions in our building projects.Dib Abdul-Hadi
Nena Analysis is one of the few analyses we use on a weekly basis and is definitely highly important. We rate all these companies every year and pick the ones to continue with, and we've been with Nena for a long time. We're always shown very good analysis and very good insights.Nicholas Martin
Head of Sourcing Europe, Norsk Hydro
Myself, as an employee in Bane NOR, have had a two decade history as customers of Nena and that’s due to the need to have a necessary tool to make good decisions on a daily basis.Jonny Glærum
Key discussions for the Spring 2023 Nordic Power Market Outlook.
Onshore wind power investments in the Nordic region are currently experiencing a decline. This decline can be attributed to a high level of conflict in many areas, with numerous vetoes from local authorities. Additionally, the rising cost of onshore wind power is posing profitability challenges for several projects.
Solar power investments, particularly in Norway, are progressing slowly. While the potential profitability of these projects is promising, conflicts related to land use and other factors are impeding or delaying investments more than previously anticipated.
Several offshore wind projects are facing delays due to cost increases. In Norway, the first tender round is more than a year behind schedule.
It is imperative that investments in new production ensure satisfactory profitability for investors in the long term. Although offshore wind power is likely to see growth due to subsidies, there is an expectation that it will need to operate without subsidies in the long run. Consequently, rising costs for new production are contributing to higher long-term power price expectations.
The increased costs for new production are also impacting the profitability of projects on the demand side. As a result, consumption growth is expected to be hindered by the higher costs associated with new production.
Much of the growth in consumption will depend on its flexibility, allowing consumers to use power when prices are low. Technologies such as hydrogen and Power-to-X will play an increasingly significant role in the power markets.
To achieve carbon neutrality, it is imperative that higher EUA (Emission Unit Allowance) prices are implemented. We provide our perspective on the EUA market and propose an alternative CO2 price that is better aligned with Europe's goal of becoming climate-neutral by 2050.
Our report offers a comprehensive analysis of the various cost elements within the power system, projecting developments until 2050. We focus on Long Run Marginal Costs associated with renewable power production, energy storage, hydrogen production, and hydrogen-fired power plants.
Nena Analysis builds fundamental models and methods with strong emphasis on a combination of economic theory, market models, weather impacts and marginal cost calculations.
Our analyses reveal coherence between numerous price drivers, enabling us to explain substitution pricing, and ultimately consequences for future pricing of various commodities.