Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast 2023

Outlook for the 2023 Hurricane Season

The 2022 hurricane season ended with a total of 14 named storms, 8 of which became hurricanes and 2 that became intense hurricanes. That total was fewer than had been predicted, based on the continuing La Niña and what appeared to be a generally favorable environment prior to the start of the season.

The 2022 season taught everyone that there is still much to be learned concerning the long-range prediction of seasonal hurricane activity. Although we predicted too many named storms last season, we did correctly predict the two prime areas to be significantly impacted – the southeast U.S. (Ian and Nicole struck Florida) and the northeast Caribbean (Fiona struck Puerto Rico). 

The forecast update includes a change in the number of named storms and risk areas. Some of the factors that StormGeo's Hurricane and Long-Range Forecasters evaluated to determine this change include:

• The strength of possible return of El Nino
• Water temperatures across the Pacific
• Analog seasons

Continue reading this forecast for an in-depth analysis of the current signals and long-range patterns. The forecast also looks at major risk areas and how many storms may develop this season.

Only have time for a quick glance? Check out our Atlantic Hurricane Season Risk Map, which shows risk areas for impact and the predicted number of storms by intensity.