Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

September 2022: Expected Increase in Activity After Quiet Summer

This hurricane season has been one of the quietest on record for July and August since the very quiet 1997 hurricane season. Prior to the end of August, there were only three weak, short-lived storms across the Atlantic Basin. As of September 1, Tropical Storm Danielle formed in the far northern Atlantic west of the Azores and is likely to become the first hurricane of the season. With such a late start to the season, it appears that there will be less activity than originally predicted.

The September forecast update includes a change in the number of named storms and risk areas. Some of the factors that StormGeo's Hurricane and Long-Range Forecasters evaluated to determine this change include:

• La Niña and its impact on the Atlantic Basin,
• water temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, and
• an analysis of the European seasonal outlook model.

Continue reading this forecast – or watch the forecast video – for an in-depth analysis of the current signals and long-range patterns. The forecast also looks at major risk areas and how many storms may develop this season.

Only have time for a quick glance? Check out our Atlantic Hurricane Season Risk Map, which shows risk areas for impact and the predicted number of storms by intensity.