Before getting into our findings, let’s look at the factors we consider when determining what the season will present. Water temperatures in the Tropical Pacific (whether we will be in an El Niño or La Niña pattern) and in the deep tropics is a key element in assessing if conditions will be favorable or inhibiting. Inhibiting means there is less likelihood of an active season, while favorable means a more active season.
Besides water temperatures, we also look at levels of atmospheric instability. More instability means more thunderstorms, which trigger larger storm formation. These triggers often occur off the coast of Africa, so we turn to the Main Development Region, the area spanning east of the Caribbean across the Atlantic, where the water temperatures are below normal.
The ECMWF is close to normal when compared to the past three decades, however last year, this model was conservative in its predictions. Turning to the data in analog years, we have matched five previous years to this year’s predictions. For these, the ACE levels were all slightly above normal.
In summary, we are anticipating an active hurricane season. For the developmental and associated risk areas, there be will less time to respond to storms due to their length of track and closeness of formation. Similar to 2020, there may be ‘short-track’ and ‘pop-up’ storms arising from the Gulf, and late track intensification of storms—storms getting much stronger very near landfall. We advise you to stay informed and continuously check back for our forecast updates.
In this regularly updated forecast, StormGeo's Hurricane Forecasting team looks at current conditions across the Atlantic and Pacific as well as long-range patterns to identify...Oil & Gas | Renewables & Energy Markets | Other Industries