Fall 2020 Nordic Renewables Outlook

Details and Specifications

Key discussions for the Fall 2020 edition

• Comprehensive database with a detailed overview of more than 100 TWh potential onshore wind projects pending or with approval.
• Overview of large projects under construction as well as the expected onshore wind, large hydro, bio and offshore wind power projects to allow you to take investment decisions.
• Merit order overview of Nordic renewable investments from 2020 to 2030.
• Overview of PPAs associated with Nordic renewable investments.
• Expected electricity certificate price development: weather risk, technological, financial and political risk.
• Complete monthly and annual el certificate balance up to 2045 for all technologies, with accordingly phase-out and accumulated balance development.
• In depth information and specifications.
• We are experiencing extensive renewables expansion in the Nordic region that will continue throughout the period. Electrification, as a consequence of decarbonization, demands increased electricity consumption that will trigger continuous investments in renewables. We assess the potential and cost development for renewables and provide an overview of all renewables projects under development in the Nordic region, including wind power, solar, hydro and bio CHP.
• The rapidly declining costs of solar power make utility-scale solar power significantly profitable towards strong and sustained growth in investments over the next decades. What is the potential, and will the Nordic region be dominated by rooftop or utility scale solar?
• During the next few years, record volumes of onshore wind power will be connected to the Nordic grid. What is the total potential and will the NIMBY effect slow down further investments? We assess the onshore wind power potential in Norway, Sweden, Finland, Denmark and the Baltics and provide an overview with specific valuation details on all known onshore wind power projects under development.
• With a growing resistance towards onshore wind power, offshore wind has gained more political attention. We assess costs and potential for both bottom-fixed and floating offshore wind power until 2045 for the Nordic region.
• We assess the potential and costs of energy storage and present LRMC expectations for different energy storage technologies, including chemical batteries and power-to-gas systems.
• Power-to-gas systems using hydrogen as an energy carrier are among the most promising solutions for long-term energy storage. We discuss the potential and cost development for hydrogen production, both green hydrogen via electrolysis of water and blue hydrogen produced from natural gas with carbon capture and storage (CCS).
• The el certificate goal of 46.4 TWh of new renewable production from 2012 to 2030 has already been reached by a wide margin. The Swedish government has proposed a bill to end the elcert scheme in 2035, in line with the date it will cease in Norway. The bill should be formally put to parliament during this autumn.
• Regardless of the proposed Swedish bill, we find no credible alternative to very low el certificate prices given the recent development in the el certificates balance.
• The analysis is available as a pdf or paper version, including a spreadsheet with all relevant calculations from the analysis.

Available now.